As 2024 Ramps Up, Reports Say All Eyes Are On North Carolina

Just a couple of days into 2024, news coverage is underscoring the North Carolina governor’s race as a contest to “keep an eye on” and “the biggest gubernatorial race of the year.” Analysis by the Cook Political Report, which ranks the race as Lean Democrat, reports the matchup as one that “worr[ies] both national and North Carolina Republicans.”

The 2024 governor’s race, which has previously been called “highly competitive” and the “marquee contest of 2024,” pits “frontrunner” Attorney General Josh Stein against Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, who “comes with some baggage.” Reporting notes that Robinson’s “host of scandals” makes him “particularly polarizing” and leaves fellow Republicans concerned about his “harmful effects on other downballot races.” Robinson’s extreme stance on the “particularly potent” issue of abortion and ownership of “one of the most controversial track records in politics” are also sparking concerns about “candidate quality.”

Meanwhile, Politico highlights Josh Stein’s early strength, having “scored endorsements from across the party — including Cooper and most of the congressional delegation” and “already raised millions.” 

Read more about the 2024 election below: 

MSNBC: “Keep an eye on North Carolina” 

Politico: Can ticket-splitting governor races survive a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024?

• Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited, setting up a competitive race for the open seat. Cooper’s Democratic heir apparent is state Attorney General Josh Stein, who got into the race early and scored endorsements from across the party — including Cooper and most of the congressional delegation — and has already raised millions. 

• The Republican primary also has its leader: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Robinson, one of the few Black Republicans serving in a statewide elected position anywhere in the country, is one of the most Trump-like candidates in rhetorical style out there. (Trump also supports him.) 

• But Robinson has also compiled one of the most controversial track records in politics. He has a laundry list of scandals — agreeing with antisemitic remarks about the global economy and homophobic musings, and being stridently anti-abortion despite his wife having an abortion decades ago, a decision he said they made together, but he now regrets. 

Politico: The non-presidential stories to watch in 2024

• There are nearly a dozen gubernatorial races next year, but North Carolina’s is the one to pay the most attention to. Democrats have struggled in recent statewide races here — former President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2020 — with the governorship being one of the few exceptions.

• Cooper is term-limited and Attorney General Josh Stein has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, state Treasurer Dale Folwell and businessperson Bill Graham are facing off. Robinson is viewed as the heavy favorite, but along with him comes a host of scandals — raising some concerns about his electability. 

Cook Political Report: Can Controversial GOP Frontrunner Be Toppled in North Carolina Primary for Governor?

• Democrats have no incumbent governors running for reelection in 2024, but are defending three open seats. The toughest for them to hold is in North Carolina, a purplish state that’s trended red at the federal level. However, the fact that a particularly polarizing GOP nominee is the favorite for the nomination gives Democrats a slight early advantage in holding onto the Executive Mansion.
  
  
• Robinson has stirred controversy both during and after that race. A conservative Christian, he’s taken far-right stances on social issues, likening abortion to murder (even though he paid for one for his now-wife in the late 1980s) and opposing exceptions for rape and incest.

• Robinson has also been outspoken against LGBTQ+ rights. In a March 2023 sermon, he attacked the Pride flag, saying it “Makes me sick every time I see it, when I pass a church that flies that rainbow flag, which is a direct spit in the face to God Almighty.” Robinson has also questioned the Holocaust and made past anti-Semitic social media posts; he has said some of his past remarks were simply badly worded. Robinson also has a history of demeaning remarks toward women. He has a background of financial troubles as well, filing for multiple bankruptcies, tax liens and convictions for writing bad checks.
  
  
• Those remarks and more worry both national and North Carolina Republicans. One former GOP official told us Robinson was “Donald Trump on steroids” — though the former president did win the Tar Heel State narrowly twice and leads again in early 2024 polls. However, both of those years Cooper won even as Trump carried the state’s 16 electoral votes. That history of ticket splitting in presidential years — combined with the fact that the state has only elected three Republican governors in the past century — bolsters GOP fears.
  
  
• We’ve also seen in 2022 that voters in swing states rejected far-right nominees for governor with a history of controversial statements  — like Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona — and that abortion was a particularly potent issue in gubernatorial contests. In races for governor, voters are more likely to vote for the person rather than the party.

• A major reason we started this contest in Lean Democrat is because of the state’s reputation for vote splitting and history of electing Democratic governors even as Republicans have carried the state. And Robinson, if he’s the nominee, would be the most polarizing candidate the GOP has ever fielded. So while early polls may show a competitive race — and some even show Robinson ahead of Stein — many Republicans are skeptical if it’s Robinson as their standard bearer.